Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 061231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2339 (N12E63, Ekc/beta-gamma)
produced an impulsive X2 (R3-Strong) flare at 05/2211 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 1163 km/s) and 590 sfu
Tenflare. In conjunction with the X-flare, a filament in the northeast
and a portion of a filament in the southwest erupted.  A CME was
subsequently observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery erupting from the
northeast at 05/2224 UTC.  Another, weaker CME can be seen in the
southwest.  Neither are expected to be geoeffective.

Region 2339 also produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) at
05/1353 with an associated Type II radio sweep at 05/1351 UTC (est.
shock speed 1110 km/s) and another M1 flare (R1 Minor) at 06/1149 UTC.

Region 2335 (S16E11, Ekc/beta-gamma) also produced two M-Class flares
flares, an M1/Sf (R1-Minor) at 05/1425 UTC and an M2/2n (R1 Minor) at
05/1724 UTC, respectively.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight, yet increasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare , over
the next three days (06-08 May).  Regions 2235 and 2239 are the likely
sources of increased flare activity.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (06-08 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at ACE was quiescent (speed 350-400 km/s,
neutral Bz, Bz near 6 nT) until the arrival of an interplanetary (IP)
shock at 06/0053 UTC.  Following the shock arrival, wind speed climbed
to 450-500 km/s.  Bt rose to 19 nT an Bz dipped as low as -10 nT.
Density also rose and Phi shifted from positive to a more negative
inclination after 06/0500 UTC.

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected to persist at the ACE
spacecraft through 07 May as the CME passage is combined with the onset
of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.  A
return to quiescent levels is expected on 08 May.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A sudden impulse
was recorded at mid and high-latitude magnetometer stations at 06/0143
UTC, with a 31 nT deviation observed at Boulder.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 07 May in
response to the CME passage and high speed stream described above.
Mostly quiet conditions return on 08 May.


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