Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 031547
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MON AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND...NWRN/N-CNTRL SD...AND FAR NERN
WY. A SEWD EXPANSION HAS BEEN MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA AS STRONG
SELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN
20-25 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WHILE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A BRIEF/ISOLATED BASIS
WITHIN THE ELEVATED AREA...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS FORECAST RH
VALUES GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THIS PRECLUDES AN
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL WITH THIS UPDATE.

..GLEASON.. 05/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0453 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE GENERALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE DURING DAY2/MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL ACT TO BUILD A RIDGE
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE RESULT
WILL BE A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
NORTHERN ALBERTA CANADA.

TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS RIDGE...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEFORE PHASING WITH THE STRONGER LOW/TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO...A REMNANT FRONT WILL
REMAINS GENERALLY STATIONARY...STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

...EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING
SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED-TO-LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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