Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 040853
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...
A WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY DAY TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY
DRY FINE DEAD FUELS /DUE TO LACK OF RECENT PRECIPITATION/ TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-042215-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          TUE
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0           70           50
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE        TSTMS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       79           49           71
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 11                      N  5
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 18        SW 12        NE  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.08         0.02
PRECIP DURATION                                  7            0
PRECIP BEGIN                                  6 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                              CONTINUING         8 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               27           97           40
HAINES INDEX                        5            3            4
LAL                                 1            4            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              9930           70         5360
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 24        SW 19         N  6
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              238320         1330        32160
DISPERSION INDEX                  238            1           32
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ019>021-042215-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          TUE
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0           80           70
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE        TSTMS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       78           52           70
AM WIND (MPH)                    S  9                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 14        SW  8         N  7
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.15         0.10
PRECIP DURATION                                  9            3
PRECIP BEGIN                                  6 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                              CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               26           98           46
HAINES INDEX                        5            3            3
LAL                                 1            4            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)             10430           70         6060
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 22        SW 19        NW  7
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              229460         1330        42420
DISPERSION INDEX                  229            1           42
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-042215-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          TUE
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0           60           50
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE        TSTMS      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       83           49           71
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 10                      N  6
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 15         W  9         N  9
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.07         0.02
PRECIP DURATION                                  5            1
PRECIP BEGIN                                  8 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                              CONTINUING         8 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               25           95           39
HAINES INDEX                        5            3            4
LAL                                 1            4            4
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)             11350           70         5390
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 21        SW 17         N  8
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              238350         1190        43120
DISPERSION INDEX                  238            1           43
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-042215-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          TUE
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0           70            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE        TSTMS         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       80           48           70
AM WIND (MPH)                    S  8                      N  6
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 13        SW  8        NW  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.11         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                                  6
PRECIP BEGIN                                  8 PM
PRECIP END                                    6 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               26           96           27
HAINES INDEX                        5            4            4
LAL                                 1            4            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)             11070           70         6990
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 23        SW 20        NW 10
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              254610         1400        69900
DISPERSION INDEX                  255            1           70
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

WIND TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
WIND WEDNESDAY...EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND FRIDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.

$$



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