Suppression Forecast
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000
FNAK71 PAFC 041431
FWSAER

SPOT FORECAST FOR JBER RX...MSS FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
631 AM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 AKDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT A SURFACE INVERSION HAS FORMED.
THUS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL START OUT VERY LOW IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT
STEADILY RISE AS THE SUN WARMS TEMPERATURES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING AROUND
TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRANSITING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WHICH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO FORM A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH RHS WILL DROP A BIT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NW 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING SW 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AT 6AM RISING TO 2500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NW 4 MPH BECOMING SW 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........S WIND 4 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT DROPPING TO 500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........S 10 MPH BECOMING SE 4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NW WIND 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING SE 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT RISING TO 3500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........E WIND 4 MPH BECOMING S 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...BAINES
REQUESTED BY...JON GLOVER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JBERR.01/AER



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