Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 281832
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...VALID 18Z TUE APR 28 2015 - 00Z THU APR 30 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



SOUTH FLORIDA

WHILE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA---ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY---KEEPING PW VALUES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.  MU-CAPE VALUES
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO AND A FEW
HOURS AFTER 0000 UTC WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE POST 1200
UTC---ALTHOUGH NOT AS GREAT AS VALUES TUESDAY.  THE HI RES
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED FOR THE QPF DETAILS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS
THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.  WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES LINGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN RE-FIRES TOMORROW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN
URBANIZED AREAS FROM SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+.

ORAVEC


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