Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 251812
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/25/15 1812Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1745Z      WARREN
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LOCATION...N FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...S ALABAMA...
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ATTN WFOS...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES CONCERNING POTENTIAL MARGINAL HEAVY RAIN
EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS SRN AL/NRN FL/SRN GA.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SETUP IS NOT IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ATTM.  HOWEVER HAVE SOME CONCERN OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
OVER SATURATED GROUNDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR AND UL STLT
DERIVED WINDS DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF MODEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN GULF AND SERN US WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET.  EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
AND JET STREAK ARE SEEN TRACKING EWD ACROSS LA ATTM.  THESE FEATURES
SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSES SRN AL/NRN FL/SWRN TO S-CENTRAL GA.  EXPERIMENTAL GOES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION (CI) PRODUCT IS KEYING IN ON CU/TCU STREETS ACROSS
WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS.  THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS PROGRESSING
E ACROSS SRN LA.  EVEN WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM SRN TX
ALONG GULF COAST EAST TO SERN GA...LLVL CONVERGENCE IS LACKING PER VWPS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION WHICH IS MAKING IT A CHALLENGING SITUATION
AND LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1810-2110Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROF/UL JET STREAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.  SOME OF THESE CELLS
MAY MERGE WITH APPROACHING MCS ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL WITHIN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PLUME.  GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY
GET AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  IF LLVL CONVERGENCE CAN BE ENHANCED BY
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR RESIDUAL COLD POOL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THEN
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  WITH RAIN RATES  ANTICIPATED TO
BE UPWARDS OF 1-2"/HR AT TIMES...MAY PRESENT SOME FLOODING ISSUES FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3207 8214 3117 8040 3023 8104 2976 8384 2959 8593
2965 8778 3112 8804 3192 8525
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