Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210131
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
930 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

BAND OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHERN MI. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY LIQUID...BUT SHOULD BE TRENDING
MIXY IN WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. WE HAVE ALSO STARTED TO MIX WITH
SNOW HERE AT OUR OFFICE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND
HAVE BEEN UPDATING THE FORECAST TO SPEED UP THE ONSET OF MIXED
PRECIP.

STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOMETHING OF A BREAK OVERNIGHT...BEHIND THE
ONGOING PRECIP BAND AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIP BACK IN THE
DULUTH MN AREA. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP WILL TOTALLY CEASE OVERNIGHT...
GIVEN SHARPLY CYCLONIC/MOIST FLOW AND (IN AREAS) UPSLOPE FLOW. SO
CURRENT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT/CHANCY
POPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A 983MB SFC LOW JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FANTASTIC UPPER
PENINSULA...WHILE RAIN SHOWER ARE OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVER ERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE SW SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR
SHIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS COOLER WINDS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI...LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE/SHORTWAVE FORCED
RAIN AND SNOW ALSO BEING FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPS AND 2M TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
SHOWERS WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON. USED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM THE NAM TO
DELINEATE RAIN/SNOW/MIX. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM MON APR 20 2015

THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
AREA WILL HELP ENHANCE THE PCPN. EXPECT THE HIGHS POPS/COVERAGE FOR
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE WNW FLOW. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND -4C TO
-8C...THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE TEMPS FALLING OFF TO NEAR 30...SOME WET
SNOW/SLUSH MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON SOME ROADS.

WED-THU...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
ESE TO THE ERN LAKES BY LATE THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME
HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY
PCPN... MOSTLY AS SNOW BUT POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN OVER OVER THE
SE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE
CONTRIBUTION AS 850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -9C TO -12C...THE BEST
COVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST WITH STEEP SFC-700 MB
LAPSE RATES 700 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -18C WED WILL ONLY MODERATE TO
NEAR -14C THU. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

FRI-MON...FCST UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AS THE GFS/GEFS/GEM MAINTAIN
TROUGHING INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A RIDGE TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. WITH EITHER SCENARIO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW(GFS/GEFS)OR NO(ECMWF) PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING...VFR OVERNIGHT...MVFR TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT BE
IN ANY HURRY TO DEPART...ONLY DRIFTING TOWARD JAMES BAY THRU TUESDAY
EVENING. PLENTY OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE LOW. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...THOUGH FOR A
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR.
OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP (MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT...RA/SN MIX TUESDAY).

SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTH OF
MICHIGAN...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND BIGGEST
WAVES FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...JIT
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JIT



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