Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 021413
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...EVEN ON "QUIET" WEATHER DAYS...THERE`S
ALWAYS SOMETHING TO LOOK AT. TODAY`S SELECTION IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR NICE WARMUP BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PAST FEW WEEKS. BASED ON THE LATEST
THINKING...AIDED BY 12Z APX RAOB...MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB TODAY
(OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER) LOOKS QUITE ACHIEVABLE...WHICH SHOULD
PUT DEW POINTS TANKING IN THE SANDY SOIL AREAS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER...ALSO WHERE THE JACK PINE STANDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PERFECT
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS TO IGNITE PER DNR REPORTS. AS SUCH...AND
GIVEN OUR HISTORY OF NUMEROUS FIRES THE PAST TWO WEEKS...WOULD
FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE REALLY PLAYING UP THE FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES TODAY AND HAVE DONE JUST THAT. WEAKER GRADIENT/WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT US FROM REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
NONETHELESS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE DON`T BURN!

OUTSIDE OF THAT...REALLY A RATHER NICE DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY HELPING DRIVE A BAND OR TWO OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO EXPECTED RAIN
THREAT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE YESTERDAY`S HIGHS AND
TACK ON A BONUS 3 DEGREES OR SO...SAVE FOR EASTERN UPPER WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND THE LONGEST...HOLDING THEM "ONLY" IN
THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXTENDING RIDGING INTO
LOWER MI. WARM ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING W AND N OF THIS
RIDGE...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD UPPER MI AND SUPERIOR. WE
ALREADY SAW SOME OF THE BENEFITS OF THIS YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO OFFER MORE OF THE
SAME...THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE SOME SNEAKY PRECIP CHANCES ENTERING THE
PICTURE BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST UPSTREAM ALSO FEATURES A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AND BE THICKEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHERE THEY WILL
INTERFERE WITH HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. NOT SO MUCH ACROSS THE BULK
OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND AN INCREASE OF 2C IN 850MB TEMPS SHOULD MORE
THAN COMPENSATE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN NORTHERN LOWER TO REACH OR
EXCEED YESTERDAYS HIGHS...MAINLY IN THE 70-75 RANGE. COOLER READINGS
WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST WITH AN ONSHORE E TO SW WIND.
FROM THE STRAITS REGION NORTH...EXPECT HIGHS TO COME UP A LITTLE
SHORT OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID-UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD SW FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO MN. PATCHY MID
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE REGION...AND ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN UPPER. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...850-700MB LAPSE RATES NEARING
8C/KM. RADIATIONAL COOLING OFF THE TOP OF THE MOIST/CLOUD LAYER WILL
FURTHER STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...WITH NAM PORTRAYING MUCAPES OF 200J/KG
OVER EASTERN UPPER CENTERED ON 06Z. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL SOME
VERY BUBBLE MID-CLOUD...AND THE NAM DOES ACTUALLY GENERATE PRECIP IN
EASTERN UPPER. THE PRIMARY OBSTACLE IS DRY AIR BELOW 800MB...WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15C. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION A CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE BRIDGE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SUNDAY. THUNDER CHANCES (NON-SEVERE) LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE NOAM PATTERN
LOOKS ABOUT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT HEADING THROUGH THE BEGINNING STAGES
OF MAY...WITH A NORTH DISPLACED AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ALL ENERGY TIED UP TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...THE MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH IS RATHER ROBUST UPPER
JET CORE/ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KICK OFF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN
HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS DELIVERING SOME MUCH NEED RAIN
IN THE PROCESS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS
SUNDAY. ADDRESSING LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES. ADDITIONAL LATE PERIOD SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO NEED
LOOKING INTO.

DETAILS: WEEKEND COMES TO A CLOSE ON A RATHER WARM NOTE...WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS
COLD FRONT HELPING DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER (JUST A TOUCH COOLER ELSEWHERE)
SUNDAY. ABOVE DEFINITELY RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MOSTLY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE
DELAYED AT THE SURFACE...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURE DON`T THINK CRITICAL LEVELS WILL BE REALIZED...BUT
WITH AMBIENT DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS/INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WINDS...DO BELIEVE A MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS WORTHY
IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. WHILE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE...STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SAFE BET FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH NO DOUBT BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED AS DEEPER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS PUSH BY TO
OUR NORTH. COLD FRONTS HAVE A HISTORY OF GREATLY UNDER PERFORMING
ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY WHEN DETACHED FROM STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. SO...DESPITE PWATS SURGING UP AND OVER AN INCH...JUST NOT
SEEING ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HINTS
PATTERN REALLY BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS STRONG ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
WEST...HELPING AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE PROCESS. DEVELOPING
WAA DRIVES OHIO VALLEY FRONT NORTH...INTRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. OF COURSE...HOW ALL THIS UNFOLDS IS ANYTHING
BUT CERTAIN...AND GIVEN AMPLIFICATION...SURE COULD SEE A SLOWER
SOLUTION MANIFEST ITSELF. TEMPERATURES ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
POSITION AND RAIN CHANCES...BUT TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT A RETURN
OF SOME RATHER WARM WEATHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR. LLWS PLN LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THRU THE
FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE COMFORTABLY VFR.

A BIT OF A SW BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY (THOUGH AN EASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT TO APN IN THE AFTERNOON). SURFACE WINDS GO
LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS JUST ABOVE. PLN LOOKS TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND HAVE INCLUDED LLWS THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BIT OF A SW BREEZE DEVELOPING TODAY AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVES EAST. NOT ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZES FROM
DEVELOPING ON THE LAKE HURON WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL
GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND/WAVES...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MI.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ


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