Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231720
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
120 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

IT`S ALWAYS A GOOD DAY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHEN ONE CAN SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES...AND INDEED THAT`S WHERE WE FIND
OURSELVES TODAY (HOPEFULLY). LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A WELL DEFINED BACK EDGE TO RATHER THICK LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WORKING EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS...AND
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA ROUGHLY 18-22Z PER CURRENT TRENDS.
ALONG THE SAME LINES...EARLIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FADED NICELY...
WITH JUST A FEW OCCASIONAL FLURRIES NOTED. THOSE OF COURSE WILL
END AS SKIES CLEAR...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE SNEAKY STRATOCU TO FLARE UP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
THANKS TO RESIDUAL CHILLINESS ALOFT. THAT STUFF...HOWEVER...
SHOULDN`T REALLY STAND A CHANCE AS WE ENTRAIN INCREASINGLY DRIER
AIR FROM ALOFT (SEE PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES JUST UPSTREAM
CURRENTLY)...WITH A BRIGHT THOUGH CHILLY EARLY EVENING ON TAP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH A VERY GRADUAL
DECREASE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSITY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ISSUE A SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT SLICK TRAVEL BASED ON REPORTS THIS MORNING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AS AIR/GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...GETTING BETTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE IRRITATING COLD SFC/UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS
STILL SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH GUSTY AND CYCLONIC WNW/NW
WINDS STILL DRAWING SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
LOWERED INVERSION AND LOSS OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL DISRUPTION HAS LED
TO A MORE BANDED LOOK TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WHICH WERE MORE SO
PINPOINTING FROM FRANKFORT TO CHARLEVOIX...AND WELL INLAND. SNOWFALL
INTENSITIES WERE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THAT LOWERED
INVERSION/LESS INSTABILITY...AND THUS...SNOW TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN MINIMAL SINCE LAST EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WAS CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN. MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESIDED
FURTHER WEST...BURIED UNDERNEATH ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FOLKS...WE SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. ALTHOUGH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...INTENSITIES AND
COVERAGE OF THE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR ACROSS WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH
WILL WORK INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOWS
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN...WITH MANY HOLES/POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
COMING OUT. IT`S STILL GONNA BE CHILLY THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. INTO THE EVENING...THOSE CLEAR
SKIES FROM EVEN FURTHER WEST WILL SETTLE INTO NRN MICHIGAN...LINKED
TO THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AGAIN TODAY...CALMING WINDS ARRIVE TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT OVERHEAD TROUGHING
WILL STATION ITSELF JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
ONCE EAST OF THE REGION IT WILL ACT AS A NICE BLOCKER...SHOVING NEXT
WAVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER (AT LEAST AS IT LOOKS NOW). RETREATING COLD
ANOMALIES AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BRING A SLOW
MODERATING TREND...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SAFELY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TAKE CENTER STAGE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP NORTHEAST LOW HELPING LOCK THIS
FEATURE IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RATHER MOISTURE RICH WESTERN SYSTEM
MAKES A RUN INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY...BUT SURFACE HIGH AND
DRY AIR ON BACKSIDE OF EASTERN SYSTEM WILL HELP DRIVE THIS LOW OFF
TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. PATTERN
RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION...FURTHER SUPPORTING
OUR DRY SOLUTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE A TOUCH
OF A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY SLIP INTO THE AREA. NOT A BIG DEAL FOR
SURE...AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WHAT SHOULD BE A SLOW
TEMPERATURE REBOUND...WITH FRIDAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND
SATURDAY`S IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK CHILLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER
TEENS IN THE TRADITIONAL COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM INHERITED DRY WEATHER RIGHT
THROUGH THIS STRETCH. CHANCES DEFINITELY NOT ZERO...WITH HINTS
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST GYRE COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPAWN
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALLY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TO
DRIVE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO MIDWEEK. PROBS ON BOTH
JUST MUCH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW ALL THIS UNFOLDS. AS FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING...FLOW REGIME DEFINITELY DOES NOT SUPPORT
SUCH...ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT LOOKS TO PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST
FLOW. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

PERSISTENT LOWER CLOUDS IN THE 2800-4500 FT RANGE WILL GIVE WAY TO
RAPID IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TOWARD APN ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH ANY GUSTS STILL UNDER 18KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL FINALLY EXIT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TAKING ALONG WITH IT...THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND REMAINS FOR AT LEAST THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE NO MARINE
CONCERNS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MANY NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY...MAINLY
WHITEFISH BAY DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD



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