Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 161519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BROKEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THIS MORNING
ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WEAKER MID LEVEL
STABILITY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOISTURE AXIS TIPS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ENDING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ALONG
WITH INCREASING QG SUBSIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  WILL RIDE UP
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ULTIMATELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD APN. BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TVC/MBL TODAY. CIGS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.