Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...GETTING BETTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE IRRITATING COLD SFC/UPPER LOW PRESSURE WAS
STILL SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH GUSTY AND CYCLONIC WNW/NW
WINDS STILL DRAWING SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
LOWERED INVERSION AND LOSS OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL DISRUPTION HAS LED
TO A MORE BANDED LOOK TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WHICH WERE MORE SO
PINPOINTING FROM FRANKFORT TO CHARLEVOIX...AND WELL INLAND. SNOWFALL
INTENSITIES WERE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THAT LOWERED
INVERSION/LESS INSTABILITY...AND THUS...SNOW TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN MINIMAL SINCE LAST EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WAS CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WISCONSIN. MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESIDED
FURTHER WEST...BURIED UNDERNEATH ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FOLKS...WE SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. ALTHOUGH LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...INTENSITIES AND
COVERAGE OF THE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR ACROSS WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH
WILL WORK INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY. BY AFTERNOON...SNOWS
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN...WITH MANY HOLES/POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
COMING OUT. IT`S STILL GONNA BE CHILLY THOUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. INTO THE EVENING...THOSE CLEAR
SKIES FROM EVEN FURTHER WEST WILL SETTLE INTO NRN MICHIGAN...LINKED
TO THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AGAIN TODAY...CALMING WINDS ARRIVE TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WHILE NOT HIGH IMPACT, SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WILL COAT THE ROADS IF IT FALLS HARD ENOUGH, AND WILL
PRODUCE SLIPPERY SECTIONS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING THE SNOW TO END AND THE SKIES TO CLEAR.

(04/23)THURSDAY...STARTING AROUND 12Z, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS THE 850-700 MB RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF SO THAT BY 00Z,
THE RH IS LESS THAN 20%. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -10C AND
ARE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY, SO WE SHOULD BE LOSING INSTABILITY, AS
WELL AS MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LES, BUT WITH THE SUN ANGLE, AND NOT A LOT OF
WIND SHEAR, WILL EXPECT LIKE TODAY THAT WE WOULD GET CELLULAR LAKE
EFFECT, SO AS THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WANE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WILL EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND CEASE BY THE EVENING.

(04/24)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE
AREA DRY AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE HEIGHTS
BUILDING MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, THE
GFS IS MAKING A CASE TO INTRODUCE POPS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE NIGHT.

(04/25)SATURDAY...HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE GFS THREATENS TO BRING
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IT FOLLOWS THE ECMWF IDEA OF PUSHING
THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING THE DAY DRY. WITH THE
SFC HIGH MOVING EAST INTO HUDSON BAY, WILL CONSIDER THAT WE SHOULD
HAVE A SET UP FOR DRY AIR PUSHING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS SOUTH. THIS
LEAVES THE 500 MB RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, AND
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE ON THE HORIZON FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE REALLY
DIMINISHES AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEVELOP AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK
INTO THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE
A FEELING THIS MAY BE DELAYED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS BASED ON THE LACK
OF CONVINCING SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MANAGEABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND
NORMALS ARE RIDING IN THE UPPER 50S BY THIS POINT...SO WHILE WE`LL
STILL LIKELY BE A SHADE BELOW NORMAL...IT`LL BE ANOTHER WELCOME
ROUND OF SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...

STILL COLD WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WNW WINDS WERE GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND PUSHING
THEM ACROSS NW LOWER...AND CLOSE TO APN. AM EXPECTING A PREVAILING
VFR CONDITION...OUTSIDE OF LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MAY BRING PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS...BUT ALSO MVFR VSBYS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
INTO MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING. ULTIMATELY...DRIER AIR IS TOO DEEP AND SKIES TURN CLEAR
TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...BUT INVADING HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING
CALMING CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL FINALLY EXIT EAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TAKING ALONG WITH IT...THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND REMAINS FOR AT LEAST THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE NO MARINE
CONCERNS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MANY NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY...MAINLY
WHITEFISH BAY DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-345-
     346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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