Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 042007
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

OVERVIEW...RETREATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT OF THE AREA,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND IT. AT
500 MB, THE HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING SLOWLY WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.

DETAILS FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT AS THE COOL AIR ON THE CURRENT NORTH WINDS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN OVER THE THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. THIS WILL PRODUCE CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS,
BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL MIXING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THE DEWPOINT HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE STILL
HAVE A LITTLE MORE HEATING TO GO. SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WILL MENTION IT TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT FOR
EVALUATION AS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING STARTS LATER AROUND 00Z. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE FROST, BY EARLY MORNING, WITH THE LOWER 30S IN
SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED, BUT SINCE WE HAVE YET TO GREEN UP, THAT
WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

...LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A QUASI-ZONAL
LOOK TO IT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROLLING INTO EASTERN
CANADA AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/MEXICO.  LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST IOWA/KANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.  COOLER/DRIER AIR
WAS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE FORECAST TO TURN MORE
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC SLOWS AND DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE
TO RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS IN TURN WILL PULL
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THE UPSHOT FOR THE GREAT LAKES IS RISING HEIGHTS AS
RIDGING EXPANDS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SETUP FAVORS AND EAST-WEST SLOW MOVING/
STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEK.  IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
ANTICIPATED STATIONARY FRONT.  AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES...
WESTERN END OF THE FRONT WILL GET PULLED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WEDNESDAY.  EVENTUALLY LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY (I.E., THE PART CLOSEST TO US) WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: DEW POINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL
WITH RE-ORIENTING WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY...THOUGH IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF A MID LEVEL
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW QUICKLY THIS
FEATURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD.  SOME CHANCE THAT THIS WAVE COULD GET
FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO WISCONSIN TO ALLOW THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS TO CLIP CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT
POTENTIAL.  BUT MORE SUN/DEEPER MIXING FARTHER NORTH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE AREAS WHERE LAKE BREEZES SHOULD PREDOMINATE.  CONCERNED
ABOUT DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIR MASS AND LIKELIHOOD THAT DEW POINTS
WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
SOME AREAS.  WHILE WIND SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL AND QUICK DRYING
OF FINE FUELS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.  AS WESTERN
PORTION OF FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...BAND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH ALONG WITH IT ACROSS WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.  SOME OF THIS MAY REACH NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN.  TOO CLOSE TO IGNORE
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...THOUGH
ANY PRECIP WILL NEED TO OVERCOME VERY DRY LOW LAYERS SO DON`T WANT
TO OVERPLAY THE THREAT RIGHT NOW (SREF 04/09Z AND 04/15Z ARE PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE...BUT ARE THE ONLY PIECES OF QPF GUIDANCE THAT ARE).
CHANCE OVERNIGHT POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD WORK FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT`S MOISTURE BAND EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS IT DOES IT LOOKS TO GET
STRETCHED/THINNED WITH TIME AS IT TRIES TO MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST LOWER COUNTIES...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  ANY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO DISSIPATE
(ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER) WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...MAIN IDEA FOR THURSDAY IS MAIN WARM FRONT WILL BE
REFORMING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A
REMNANT BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS MICHIGAN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST....WHILE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS AS SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETS KICKED NORTHEAST.  MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UPSTREAM OF LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS POINT...SO APPEARS TO BE A
WARM AFTERNOON ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AS WELL...NOT GUSTING TOO BADLY.  DEW POINTS ALSO EXPECTED
TO RISE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS BUT STILL POTENTIALLY DANGERS GIVEN LARGE SCALE
BACKGROUND CONDITIONS. SO A MENTION OF SUCH WILL BE ADDED TO THE
AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TREKKING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...KEEPING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WHILE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SECTOR
AND THEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE STILL MARGINAL...WITH 850-700MB LAPSE
RATES BARELY GETTING ABOVE 6C/KM. THE BEST CHANCE IS JUST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AFTER BEING AIDED BY THE
MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING AND BETTER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO...GIVING NORTHERN MICHIGAN THE BEST CHANCE OF
AT LEAST A SMALL BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
AROUND. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS HAVING TROUBLES RESOLVING AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...HAVING IT BECOME VERY AMPLIFIED ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDER AGAIN. AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER SAID...SURE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE MODELS GET A HOLD ON THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. UNTIL THEN...CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
DECREASED POPS A BIT AND TOOK OUT THUNDER SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND WILL CLEAR
OUT THE CLOUDS BY THE EVENING, IF IT`S NOT ALREADY CLEAR OVER
NORTHERN MI. DRY AIR UPSTREAM UNDER THE HIGH, WILL BE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO EXPECT VFR CIGS
AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE SUNSETS THIS EVENING, THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH OVER N LOWER BY 12Z. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A VERY SLACK GRADIENT SO THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SO THAT THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT,
AND TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY,
THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST A BIT AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY ON LAKE
MICHIGAN. IT LOOKS LIKE ON WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE HURON, THAT THE
HIGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ENOUGH, TO ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL


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