Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A BIT OF AN EARLY UPDATE TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS.
MID MORNING QUICK ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER POTENT VORT MAX ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH QUITE THE BATCH
OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. ALREADY
SEEING BKN/OVC CEILINGS UP AROUND 8KFT WRAPPING INTO FAR NORTHERN
AREAS THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING UP NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME (MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY?). PER CURRENT
SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...IT WOULD
APPEAR THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WRAP SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BRIEFLY THIN LATER IN THE DAY AS WE SEE A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MID
LEVEL DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE LEADING MOISTURE BAND.

IN ADDITION...SOME THICKER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY...BUT SUSPECT DIURNAL MIXING
AND INITIAL RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD ALL THE LOW STRATUS AT
BAY FOR A TIME. WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR WE MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOUTHWARD STRATUS EXPANSION TONIGHT AS SECONDARY VORT
MAX SLIPS DOWN LAKE HURON AND LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES TAP THE MORE
MOIST AIR AXIS CURRENTLY IN PLACE NOT THAT FAR AWAY. PLENTY OF
TIME TO FIGURE THAT OUT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NO REAL CHANGES
NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT AS WE ALREADY FEATURE THE
COOLEST READINGS OVER EASTERN UPPER WHERE THICKER CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY ARRIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN ON SFC/UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS. ONE SUCH TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN ATTM BUT
WAS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED. ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WERE PUSHING IN
FROM THE NE...AND ALSO DISSIPATING WITH TIME. ANOTHER MORE DEFINED
AND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE...WAS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND WAS PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ESTABLISHED TO OUR
WEST...AND A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WAS CREEPING BACK INTO THE
REGION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PATTERN NOT TO CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. NOT ENTIRELY SURE ON A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER SINCE THE
MOISTURE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WILL GO
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY WEST/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EAST SCENARIO. THIS OUGHT
TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. IF ANYTHING...WOULD THINK THERE COULD
BE A BIT MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE SOME LATER
DAY GUSTINESS TO 16-20MPH.

BEHIND WHATEVER EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WE GET WITH THE INITIAL
TROUGH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES BEFORE THE
NEXT ARRIVES. THIS STRONGER TROUGH HAS BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...AND TEETERING ON MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST. THERE IS ALSO AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SPIT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NE LOWER...BUT
BEST BET IS TO GO WITH JUST CLOUDS FOR RIGHT NOW.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A MILDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS IN THE CHILLY
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LONG TERM MODELS DROP DOWN ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY (THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST/COOLEST WITH THIS SYSTEM).
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S (THOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD
INFER TRIMMING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GIVEN GUIDANCE). MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FRIDAY THEN THE
60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS THEN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SOME PASSING BOUTS OF BOTH CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND
THE 4-5KFT LAYER...AND SOME THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES UP
AROUND 6-9KFT. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT SHOULD
DRAG A COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
NORTH TO SOUTH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER STRATUS...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
(DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN COOL OVERNIGHT) FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AROUND PLN AND APN BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND APN. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OF
18-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
LIFT ON MONDAY...THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS BACK OVER NRN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH THE BETTER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING
UP TO 20 KNOTS. GRADIENT SLACKENS THEREAFTER AND WINDS ARE NO LONGER
A CONCERN.

NO ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD



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