Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WELL...WHAT DO YA KNOW? THE CLOUD FORECAST ACTUALLY WORKED OUT
RATHER WELL OVERNIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW SPITS OF RAIN PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST LOWER AND EVEN ONE FINAL BATCH PUSHING INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS I TYPE THIS. THE JUNKY CONDITIONS COME COURTESY OF A
NOTABLE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SLIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
CURRENTLY...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CANADA COAST. AS IT DEPARTS...A FEW
BREAKS IN THE LOWER OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH...THANKS
OF COURSE TO OUR VERY LATE APRIL SUNSHINE (WHERE DID THIS MONTH
GO?). SUSPECT THAT TREND WILL VERY SLOWLY CONTINUE BUT WITH
STRATOCU FLARING UP TO TAKE ITS PLACE FOR MANY AREAS. WE DO STAND
SOME SHOT AT SEEING PERIODS OF SUNSHINE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST LOWER WITH SOME WEAKISH
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE OTHER LAKESHORES AS THE
COLD WATERS STABILIZE THE DOWNWIND ENVIRONMENT TO CONVECTIVE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A SPOKE OR TWO OF BETTER MID
CLOUDS WILL ROTATE IN THROUGH THE DAY...GIVING AN OVERALL PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FLAVOR TO THE FORECAST - PERFECTLY IN LINE
WITH EARLIER THINKING. DON`T WANT TO TOUCH TEMPS JUST YET...BUT
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS IF CLOUDS DO HANG TOUGH
AS EXPECTED. STILL...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR/SUN ANGLE...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH SUN TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE
CURRENTLY SWINGING IN FROM THE NE...DRAWING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FORCING ISN`T ALL THAT FANTASTIC...BUT THERE IS A BULLSEYE
OF DEEP LAYER LIFT OVERHEAD RIGHT NOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED A FEW
SPRINKLES TO GET SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CLOUDY SKIES
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE MANISTEE AREA...AND THIS
HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER HALF OF
THE 40S.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS SEEN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEANING OVER INTO THE
FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTED IN A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES.
FURTHER WEST...FROM CANADA INTO EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS...WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING EAST.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS FROM THE CLOSED NEW ENGLAND LOW WILL SWEEP
SOUTH OF NRN MICHIGAN AROUND DAYBREAK...TAKING WITH IT ANY CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRYING TO
THIN OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION BASED AROUND 5-6KFT WILL
KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH. IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE STILL SOME RESIDUAL WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMA
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND
EVEN EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN MORE OF A GARBAGE SKY CONDITION
WITH MANY LEVELS OF CLOUDS...NOT A TOTAL CLEARING FOR SURE. LATE
TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM WEAK RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
GETTING A NUDGE FROM THE CANADA/DAKOTAS TROUGH...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR EXTENT OF MIXING/DRYING OF THE BL TODAY...IF SKIES DO
CLEAR OUT AND WE HAVE SOME THIN MOISTURE STILL STUCK UP UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION...THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE
SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COULD REDEVELOP.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...COOLER LAKESHORES. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A MILDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STUCK
UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING). ANOTHER
TROUGH THEN DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER COOLER SHOT OF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE
GENERAL TREND BEING DEEPER (WITH THE BULLISH GFS APPEARING TO BE
OVERDONE). NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS JUNCTURE (EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT). WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

THE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP A BIT. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY THEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SATURDAY
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THINNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND TVC/MBL AND
EVENTUALLY APN FOR A TIME WITH NORTH WIND OFF THE STABLE GREAT
LAKES WATERS. REMAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND APN/PLN WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH FOR TVC/MBL...AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND SHOULD HOLD MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER JUST TO THE
NORTH...THOUGH A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE DOWN THE MANISTEE RIVER
VALLEY IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE ENOUGH. SPEAKING OF WINDS...LOOK FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH FOR ALL SITES...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS INTO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A SFC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES HAS TIGHTENED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THERE ARE SOME INFREQUENT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THUNDER BAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
STURGEON POINT. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO
A CHUNK OF TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEEDING A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL BE ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE ADVISORY SCALE.

GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. THERE ARE NO FURTHER WIND CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAYBE A LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLE OVER LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-
     349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD


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