Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 062015
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 15 MPH.  THE ONLY THING THAT
WILL OFFSET THE WARMER WEATHER IS HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-070815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-070815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-070815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-070815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-070815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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