Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 052007
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT HIGHER LEVELS THAN
WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER.  TIP
OF THE MITT COUNTIES/FAR NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PROBABLY
BE WARMEST WEDNESDAY...AND COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES APPROACH 30 PERCENT.  BUT A MORE SIGNFICIANT FIRE WEATHER
DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ONCE AGAIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOT LIKELY
TO BE AN ISSUE...SO NOT ANTICIPATING RED FLAG ISSUES AT THIS POINT.
BEST CHANCE FOR HELPFUL RAINS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-060815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-060815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......44 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
407 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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