Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 021407 AAA
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST TO
INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE BUT ALSO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A FEW SPOTS
LIKELY DIPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A TIME INTO EARLY OR MID
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 18 MPH. THERE WILL BE SOME BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...WHERE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
INCREASING DEW POINTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD CONDITIONS
JUST OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG WARNING LEVELS...THOUGH THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-022030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-022030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18
                    MPH. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE UP TO 10 MPH WITHIN
                    5 MILES OF THE LAKE HURON COAST.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-022030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-022030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT...EXCEPT 34-39 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-022030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
1007 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    18 MPH. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE UP TO 10
                    MPH WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE LAKE HURON SHORE.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

LAWRENCE



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