Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 040107
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

.DISCUSSION...
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE INCREASING WITHIN SUNSET AND WIND SPEEDS ARE
DIMINISHING AS WELL.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-040815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.41 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 15 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.30 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 16 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-040815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.48 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-040815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.41 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
907 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.31 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR



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