Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 032012
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE RED FLAG CONIDTIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMETIME
AROUND 7 PM AS THE TEMPERATURE BEGINS TO FALL THIS EVENING. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE BELOW RED FLAG BY 9 PM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE
FAIR AS THE SUN SETS AND THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN TRYING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 8 PM IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE BETTER OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT IS NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-040830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.45 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.33 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 16 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-040830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.55 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-040830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.44 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.33 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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