Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 181454
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS ONLY EXPERIENCING SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT
COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS THOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MOST AREAS...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY
BE MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NOTICEABLE
FRESHENING IN WIND SPEEDS. AS COOLER AIR DEEPENS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE
WIPED OUT AND THIS WILL LEAVE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES OF
7-9 DEG C/KM TO PROMOTE SFC GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE HIGHEST GUSTS
WILL COME EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

SPEAKING OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE A FEW
NUISANCE SHOWERS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FOR SITES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE TUG HILL FOR
THIS SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. MOST
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BUT
READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS WELL AS
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT
WITH LAKE TEMPS IN THE 30S...GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO SHORES COOLER (50S).

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND SOUTH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY ALLOW OUR WINDS TO DROP
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WITH CLEAR STARLIT SKIES
AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE CAN ANTICIPATE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. TEMPS WILL EASILY DROP OFF INTO THE
30S REGIONWIDE...WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE ON THE TUG AND IN THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY DRAPED
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IN ADVANCE OF ITS DEVELOPING PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER A
SUNNY MORNING...DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING LOW SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST TO RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS MOSTLY PEAKING IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
WILL BE KEPT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE COOLER LAKE WATERS. THIS EFFECT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY OVER TO MONROE COUNTY...
WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN DRIFT FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE CONSOLIDATING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO BODILY LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING 50-60KT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSPIRING TO GENERATE A SWATH OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...THEN SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A BRIEF
PERIOD (CENTERED AROUND 06Z MONDAY) OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE...AND 925 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS. SUCH A
PATTERN CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY-CRITERIA SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR IN CHAUTAUQUA
AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...AND AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO.

ON MONDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING ITS LEADING WARM FRONT FURTHER ONWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND...AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM INDIANA TO OUR
WESTERN DOORSTEP BY LATE IN THE DAY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO START THE DAY SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN
GENERALLY PERSISTING UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BRINGS A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) TO AREAS
FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD. WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT SHOULD ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MANAGE TO DEVELOP. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONTINUED TO AIM ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS.

FINALLY DURING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE...WHILE PIVOTING ITS
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...THOUGH AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES OF THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL SEND THESE
NOTICEABLY DOWNWARD...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S AREAWIDE
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS
TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ITS LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SUCH A PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER CANADIAN AIR FEEDING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REMAINING SO RIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ALOFT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GENERALLY TIED TO
THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS STATED...
SOME ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...AND ANY SUCH
NOCTURNAL PRECIP COULD COME IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX OR
EVEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATER ON IN THE WEEK AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS IN MANY LOCATIONS FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CHARGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BY SOME
ALTO-CU IN SOME AREAS...WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS REGIONWIDE. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME QUITE
BREEZY WITH VEERING WINDS INCREASING DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...OFFERING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
FRESHEN TO OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
HAVE HOISTED A WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NY
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THIS EVENT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY AS A RESULT WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FRESHENING EASTERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ON LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS MICHIGAN. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. RH WILL ALSO DROP DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL WARMING AND DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL DROP RH TO NEAR 30
PERCENT IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WIND AND RH WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER THE BULK OF
THE AREA HAD A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THE RECENT RAINFALL MAKES FINE FUELS WETTER...AND
TAKES OUR REGION OUT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH
RECEIVED LOWER RAIN AMOUNTS IS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
HAS JUST MELTED IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO...SO FINE FUELS ACROSS MANY
OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY STILL TOO WET TO JUSTIFY ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...CHURCH/RSH
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH
FIRE WEATHER...HITCHCOCK







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