Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
COOL FOR ONE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH PLENTY OF WARMTH
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN NY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 40S AND IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
TUG HILL REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY SUNDAY...EXCEPT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTS
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INLAND OF
THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SUSPECT THE COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE TO NON-
EXISTENT. THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOONLIT SKIES UNDER A FULL MOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE
THE WINDS CAN GO CALM...BUT EVEN THEN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 40S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
FINALLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE AND EVEN WARMER DAY THAN
SUNDAY. LOCATION ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. LOWERING DEWPOINT FROM
THE TURBULENT MIXING OF THE WIND WILL ALSO LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO THE 30S...NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY WILDFIRE
CONCERN BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70 ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPTIONS APPLY FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THE METRO AREAS MUCH COOLER.

BY LATE MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...DONT EXPECT A STRONG
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH IS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STALLED
ALMOST WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. WITH FRONTOGENESIS
AND SOME LIGHT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE BOUNDARY BEING THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM...EXPECT FAIRLY SCATTERED / DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO LINGER MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING MOIST WARMTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MOVING SOUTH WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND UPSLOPE LIFT MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHERN TIER CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO
THE NORTH AND MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH EACH DAY AS WELL...AND WITH RISING DEWPOINTS WILL COME A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CHANCES ORE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AS NEITHER GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MUCH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM...BUT WITH THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO BUILD CONVECTION
AND FIRE OFF SOME STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH ANY PATCHY CLOUD COVER EXPECT TO BE
SOLIDLY IN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL STABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHTER IN THE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT THAN OVER THE SURROUNDING LAND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA/WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH


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