Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 021432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SPRING WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL FOR ONE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF WARMTH RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM OHIO
INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST
UPDATE. WILL BLEND IN THE HRRR TO FINE TUNE LAKE-BREEZES AND
UPDATE SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY PLEASANT
SPRING WEATHER. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +7C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES... WITH
UPPER 60S ON THE HILLS. SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO COOLER...
INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING THAT LAKESHORE AS
WELL.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NY. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH LOWER 40S AND EVEN
UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE.

SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL PUSH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND +8C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED SE OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FAVOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST OF THE TUG HILL REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES READING PUSHING CLOSE TO 80 IN
THESE REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMON. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW MEANS
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE THE COOLEST / WITH
TEMPS IN THE 50S/ WITH STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES INLAND.
SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. THESE CU
COULD BECOME DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER...BUT GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ONLY
GIVE THIS A SLIGHT CHANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOONLIT SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE THE
WINDS CAN GO CALM...BUT EVEN THEN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LIKELY DIP
INTO THE 40S.

ON MONDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH
LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
FINALLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE
INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE AND EVEN WARMER DAY THAN
SUNDAY. LOCATION ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EASILY IN THE MID 70S. THE SAME EXCEPTIONS APPLY FOR
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AS ON SUNDAY...WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE WILL KEEP THE METRO AREAS MUCH COOLER.

BY LATE MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...DONT EXPECT A STRONG
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH IS THAT THE FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STALLED ALMOST
WEST-EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH FRONTOGENSIS AND SOME LIGHT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE BOUNDARY BEING THE ONLY FORCING
MECHANISM...EXPECT FAIRLY SCATTERED / DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO LINGER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE STALLED ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING THE COLD
FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AROUND
70...INCREASING TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 15Z TAF CYCLE. AN AREA OF THIN CIRRUS
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY...AND SOME SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES...NEITHER OF
WHICH WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. A FEW MORE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCAL MVFR.
WOODENEST...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHTER IN THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT THAN OVER THE SURROUNDING LAND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HIBBERT
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK


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