Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT
THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE CLIPPER IS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE OH/PA
BORDER. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALL SHOWING
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER IS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE JUST BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER TAPERING TO THIN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED LARGELY
JUST BRINGING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH IFR ONLY CONFINED TO KBFD AND EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. VFR NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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