Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 272338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
OUT TO SEA. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS STARTING
TO CLEAR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE FOG MAY BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP AREA FROM RADIATING AWAY TOO MUCH TO CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WINDS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH EAST
COAST LOW AS IT PIVOTS SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY START
TO RECOVER AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EXPANDS
EASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PULL AWAY OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE REALLY DECREASING AS MUCH
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ORIGINATING OVER QUEBEC ARRIVES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
AREAS. SHOWERS SHOULD REALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. TWEAKED LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...EXCEPT FOR IN
THE SOUTH WHERE MAXES STRUGGLED TO REACH 40 TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL
START TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO. GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THESE TWO
FEATURES MERGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LEAN
FOR SHOWERS TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARMER WEATHER IS FOR SURE AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. THE POPS
ARE TOUGHER.

THE GFS HAS SOME QPF ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND LOWERED THEM
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT SEEMS WEAKER ON THE ECMWF SO FOR THE TIME BEING JUST WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME SHOWERS FLOATING AROUND THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SOME
PRECIP AT KJHW AND KROC THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS PRECIP MAY
REACH KBUF AS WELL BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY SPRINKLES.  CIGS MOST PLACES
HAVE JUMPED TO VFR WITH ONLY KJHW STILL MVFR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NE AND IT IS
POSSIBLE KART COULD SCT OUT FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.  THE SAME IS
TRUE AT ROCHESTER BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD DIP TO
MVFR AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NW.  IFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KJHW.  WILL TRY TO SLOWLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING OR SO.  WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SOME
DECREASE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME W TO NW
ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
OUT TO SEA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WIND
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE LAKES.
IN GENERAL...THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WITH WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKES
AND A FOOT OR LESS IN THE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND SPREAD EASTWARD
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. BY MIDWEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL TRACK UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST OUT OF THE GULF AND PULL THE WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...JAM







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.