Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH






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