Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 012338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EARLY EVENING WILL PROMOTE
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN AND PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE.

UNDER THESE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER VALLEYS
OF SW NYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE ONLY CONCERN LATER OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. THERE SHOULD BE LESS MOISTURE
BUT A
STRONGER INVERSION...SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY DECISION
ON WHETHER TO PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDRESSED BY WATCHING OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE PROVIDE LITTLE OF
INTEREST IN SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH A RETURN OF SOME INLAND CUMULUS
CAPPED AT AROUND 5000 FT DUE TO INCREASINGLY LIMITED MOISTURE
ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WITH TYPICAL COOLING
LAKE BREEZES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE
VARIATIONS...WITH 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND AND 60S OR 70S INLAND
BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SUN-
FILLED DAY FOR SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION IN THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A SHOWER. INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE NEARBY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR
THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA OF +8 TO +10 ON SUNDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE 70S...HOWEVER ONLY UPPER 60S ALONG THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES AND METRO BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...LOWS WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME AIRMASS MONDAY AS SUNDAY...SO
WE WILL SEE HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR LAKE BREEZE SHOWERS. ACTUALLY THE CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER MONDAY FOR A LAKE BREEZE SHOWER...OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL NOW BE EAST OF THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY DROPS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND
GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND
LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

GIVEN THIS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DEPICTING THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION
...HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AROUND
70...INCREASING TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR.
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AND MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN NEGLIGIBLE WAVE HEIGHTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF


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