Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011747
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL NY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM SPRING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL DECK THAT WAS MOVING SW OVER THE LAKES HAS
DISSIPATED...WITH GENERALLY INLAND CUMULUS BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING THROUGH ABOUT 10000 FT IS BARELY
TALL ENOUGH FOR SHOWER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT PERHAPS TOWARD
ALLEGANY COUNTY.

TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT TO SEA EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES TO THE BULK OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES...ALLOWING
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SOME OF THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A RETURN OF SOME
INLAND CUMULUS CAPPED AT AROUND 5000 FT DUE TO INCREASINGLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE LAKE SHORES
WITH TYPICAL COOLING LAKE BREEZES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS...WITH 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND AND 60S
OR 70S INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE...LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT RAIN FREE
WEATHER...BUT WILL PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE
MERCURY WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES AS DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

AS THE H5 RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...A DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING...AS RISING HGTS AND H85 TEMPS
MODERATING TO +8C WILL ENCOURAGE MAX TEMPS TO REACH CLOSE TO 70.
IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER IN THE GENESEE AND SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE
THERMOMETERS COULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S. BY AFTERNOON...A WELL
DEFINED LAKE BREEZE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S. A VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A COUPLE
MODELS ACTUALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH FORCING AND THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-LEVEL EXPECT THIS WILL MAINLY MANIFEST AS INCREASED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE. THE LAKE SHORES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD
FREE THROUGH THE DAY FROM SHADOWING OF STABLE AIR OFF THE LAKES.

ALL IN ALL...BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE GOOD ONES TO GET
OUTDOORS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PAIR OF STRONG SHORTWAVES CROSSING EASTERN CANADA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 24
HOUR WINDOW WHERE OUR REGION COULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE IDEA IS THE
SAME. THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL NOSE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
RENEWED FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL ENCOURAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED
LIFR FOG ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE DURING MORNINGS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
PA AND NY. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE
LOWER LAKES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THE
WEAK BACKGROUND WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO FORM
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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