Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281407
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
STRATOCU DECK WILL FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE DEPARTING COLD AIR OVERHEAD.

AS A NARROW SLOT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE SHOULD SEE A COMPLETE CLEARING OF THE
SKY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL WARM TO +3 TO +4C TODAY AS THE
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS EASTWARD. THIS
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL SOME WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO
DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH
MOST HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
60...ALTHOUGH AREAS HUGGING THE LAKESHORES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
A RATHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH THE GREATER CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARMER WEATHER IS FOR SURE AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY. THE POPS
ARE TOUGHER.

THE GFS HAS SOME QPF ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL ONLY BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND LOWERED THEM
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT SEEMS WEAKER ON THE ECMWF SO FOR THE TIME BEING JUST WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WENT CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. SC DECK 4-5K FT WILL FILL IN A
LITTLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST.

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE ONLY MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH TOMORROW. BY MIDWEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL TRACK UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST OUT OF THE GULF AND PULL THE WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET
ACROSS THE LAKES AND A FOOT OR LESS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS/FRANKLIN
MARINE...THOMAS



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