Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR







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