Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301449
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND A CONSEQUENT DECREASE IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH LUNCHTIME. MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FOUND
ACROSS THE BALANCE OF THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






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