Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 031815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
COOL FOR ONE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH PLENTY OF WARMTH
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND WITH CUMULUS FORMING QUICKLY IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. OTHERWISE...IT IS SUNNY AND WARM
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. THE LAKE
BREEZE SHOULD PROGRESS GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...ANY DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING A CLEAR
MOONLIT NIGHT. WITH A MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 50S. A FEW INTERIOR VALLEY MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S SHOULD THE WINDS DECOUPLE FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/WINDS/DEW POINTS ON MONDAY
BASED ON 06Z BUFKIT GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR A DEEPENING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE QUITE
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL INSTABILITY DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING AWAY
FROM THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OR
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING DURING THE DAY MONDAY...HAVE REMOVED ALL
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND IMPROVED SKY COVER TO
MOSTLY SUNNY.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO A LITTLE
COOLER...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON.

MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC. PWAT RISES TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TO ALSO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE WEAK GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. EXPECT
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH...WITH A
FEW CORRIDORS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN HANG
UP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE STALLING FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL DRY PUSH TO END THE
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM THE NYS THRUWAY NORTHWARD. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BE FOUND.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLING WILL NOT EVEN DROP TEMPERATURES BACK QUITE TO AVERAGE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 60S IN
SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEYS FROM CENTRAL NY TO THE FINGER LAKES AND
SOUTHERN TIER. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES MUCH
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ONGOING WARMTH...
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MID SUMMER-LIKE VALUES TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY
FROM THE LAKES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
+12C TO +14C RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY
FROM THE LAKES BOTH DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. POOR LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY DRY...WITH SPURIOUS QPF ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE
LOOK OF GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
LAST INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE 8-12 DAY RANGE AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
LOWER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHTER
IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT THAN OVER THE SURROUNDING LAND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH


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