Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 161429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
SUPPLY MOST OF THE AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE EARLY
SPRING TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING THOUGH...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL USHER IN THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MIDWEST TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS MORNINGS 12Z/16TH BUFFALO SOUNDING DISPLAYED AGAIN A WEALTH OF
DRY AIR...WITH PWATS AT A PALTRY 0.12 INCHES WHICH IS AGAIN NEAR
RECORD MINIMUM FOR THE DATE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE MID
WEST WILL FIND SOME RESISTANCE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THIS DRY
AIR MASS THAT IS SLOWLY RETREATING. THUS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
MICHIGAN TO OHIO...TO WEST VIRGINIA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN...WHICH WOULD LEAVE
MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
DRY. EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGH THAT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...A RIBBON OF DEEP ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE (TO THE TUNE OF
0.75 TO 1 INCH PWAT VALUES) WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE
VARIOUS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES DID NOT SEEM TO DEPICT THIS
CIRCULATION AS VIVIDLY AS WV IMAGERY DID EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEY DO AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL CLIMB THE
BACKSIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE AND CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
TONIGHT. HAVE FURTHER RAISED POPS TO 100 FOR TONIGHT...AND AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR
THUNDER AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A PALTRY 4-6 DEG C/KM.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF A QUARTER INCH...
WITH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EATING AWAY AT SOME OF THAT FOR
SITES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS/NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS THAT AVERAGED 5C ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TODAY...REACHING CLOSE TO 10C BY
MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP FAIRLY
MILD AIR FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHERE READINGS ON WEDNESDAY
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINATION WILL EASILY PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAKING IT QUITE
COMFORTABLE TO BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. THESE READINGS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL MID APRIL
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...BROAD LOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EVENTUALLY
RETURNING TO ALL AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS OF +4C TO +6C...THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST
PLACES...SAVE FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 50S.
PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

DURING SATURDAY...A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
YORK/NEW ENGLAND IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
ITS CORRESPONDING WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDING ALONG A SIMILAR
PATH. WHILE THESE FEATURES COULD BRING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
TO THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THEIR ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED
ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...SOME COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT...AND THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS STATED...THE GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF THE
LAKES NOTICEABLY COOLER.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...ELONGATED
SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
NEW ENGLAND FROM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY HEAD DOWNHILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX
SURFACE CYCLONE DRIFTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE FRONT
FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS THEN ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET LIFTS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES LATER ON IN THE PERIOD...EXPECT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO DIP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MOSTLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 ON SUNDAY...THEN MILDER LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF
NOT ALL OF MONDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE DOES NOT PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...A CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BURGEONING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT LOWERED SHOWER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDE
OPEN...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...AS THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. VFR WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AREAS...WITH SITES FROM KROC TO KART
EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER...INCLUDING AT KJHW
AND KELZ.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AREA WIDE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY..VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLAG FREE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ALONG WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. WHILE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...VEERING
WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISTURBANCE...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM WILL BE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF A FRESHENING EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH






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