Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY...WITH ONE LAST PATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH LIVINGSTON
AND ONTARIO COUNTIES CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS A DIFFERENT STORY STILL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ASCENT AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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