Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 151435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...
BEFORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER
QUEBEC...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE MORNING
12Z/15TH BUFFALO SOUNDING CONTAINED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE VALUE
OF ONLY 0.13 INCHES...TIED FOR THE LOWEST VALUE FOR THE DATE (GOING
BACK TO 1948). NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TODAY WILL BE
DRY.

ONLY QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH CIRRUS WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY...TODAY SHOULD FEATURE A THINNER CANOPY
OF CIRRUS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

UNDER THESE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A BIT
COOLER IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND WILL FLOW OVER THE COLD LAKES.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD...JUST TO OUR EAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
30S...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HAVE PRODUCED A BEAUTIFUL
SUN FILLED DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL SLIP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DEPARTING FEATURE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION FOR
ONE MORE DAY...THE MACHINERY WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROMISE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WE GO FORWARD. FOR THURSDAY THOUGH...
SUNSHINE WILL BE MASKED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS H85 TEMPS IN THE
VICINITY OF 8C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 4-5 DEG C/KM
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE RISK OF ANY THUNDER...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
MENTION SHOWERS WHILE RAISING POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE RIBBON OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THE SUBTLE LIFT
OFFERED BY THE FRAGMENTED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE TO OUR
EAST...WHILE A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS TO
GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PUSH A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND EVEN THERE THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
RAIN FREE. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ONLY RISK FOR SHOWERS COMING
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO CHILLY LEVELS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FAIRLY NICE WEATHER TO END THE
WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT CLOSER
AGREEMENT THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A COMPLEX SFC LOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

CONFIDENCE IS THUS GROWING THAT AFTER WE EXPERIENCE A SUNNY DAY ON
SUNDAY (COURTESY OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE)...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...
WILL USE CHC POPS REGION-WIDE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS THREE DAY STRETCH SHOULD AVERAGE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
FRIDAY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR
AREA WIDE.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON
THURSDAY. FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY THEN PRECEDING THE RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THROUGHOUT...A RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR






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