Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 210254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS
OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH






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