Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 251937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EXPAND BACK WESTWARD OVER TIME. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACH
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW/WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A THICKER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS STARTING TO ERODE AND
EVOLVE INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL ELONGATE IN AN EAST/WEST FASHION...WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AT FIRST...BUT SHOULD INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO DPVA
AHEAD OF SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE ADVANCING TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY WEAK OWING TO THE LIGHT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD. WITH THIS IN MIND THE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN ON SUNDAY IS LOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCING STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. ON
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S ON THE HILLS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LAKE ERIE SHORE SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOME CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERAL ASSENT IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL FURTHER
RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED SOME BY THE
COOL AIRMASS /WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C/ CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LAKE PLAINS...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE
MOIST PROFILES AND THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETREATS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB AIR /  UP TO +2C / ADVECTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKENED INSTABILITY / RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASED MOISTURE...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO AROUND 60 IN THE LAKE PLAINS...AND
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND WILL FINALLY DEPART OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A CUTOFF LOW EXITING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT
ENDS...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS INTERACTION DIFFERENTLY
INCLUDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS THE FEATURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THAT SAID...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE...LEAVING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
THUS EVEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK WOULD LIKELY ONLY SET HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S...RATHER THAN THE 40S/30S. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE VERY LACKING AND DISORGANIZED...AND
THUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OR SCATTERED IN NATURE.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER WEEKEND AS COLDER
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-7K FOOT RANGE WITH THIS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STALLED LOW ELONGATES AND
EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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