Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






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