Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS
WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR/WCH






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