Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE MADE MORE MINOR CHANGES. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUDS
APPROACHING LAKE ERIE FROM THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO NE OH AND NW
PA BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL BUT SHOULD GET COLD
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. TWO DISTINCT VORT LOVES
WILL ROUND THE UPPER LOW...ONE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NW OHIO LATE
THIS EVENING AND THE OTHER PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
ON MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NW
OHIO BEFORE 06Z WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE BUT THINK THESE MODELS
MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME
OF DAY. DID INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN NW PA WITH THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF SANDUSKY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT SO EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN...MAINLY IN NW PA. OTHERWISE MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SCATTER OUT SOME WITH
TIME AS THE FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL EXPAND OVER OHIO WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY RESIDE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ALTHOUGH A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL START NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THEN RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS. THE QPF
AMOUNTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE THAT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BUT MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EAST HALF
WITH THE TROUGH IN LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS WELL.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK.

THROUGH MONDAY LAKE ERIE WILL BE IN A NORTHERLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CHOPPY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN. THE RIDGE WILL BE IN
CONTROL UNTIL THURSDAY AND THEN A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE A NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE LAKE AND THE WAVES COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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