Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT A STRUGGLE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION DEVELOP IN IT`S WAKE
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN THE WEST WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 60F WITH WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN THE EAST THE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFF THE LAKE WHICH WILL WORK TO COUNTER THE
EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER THAN WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.

ORIGINAL...SOLID MID DECK EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. A COLD START FOR TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH AS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER WELL IN THE SUNSHINE. WILL GO WITH NEAR 60 WEST DOWN TO
MID AND UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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