Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171643
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1243 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK SEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG HAS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. A LOOK AT
AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT IN THIS REGION. IT STILL WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE FOG/HAZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LAKE IS KEEPING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CLOUDS ARE THINNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW IT COULD LEAD TO FOG.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE CLOUDS MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO CLEAR OUT
WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING NOT COMING IN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...60S IN E COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAVORABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F. ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S PLAINS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND GETS PICKED UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA....BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED. THE CAPE...EVEN ELEVATED...LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOWS
SUPPORT MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CAPE...THAN TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER
MAP STARTING MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SCATTERED MOSTLY DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND
ALSO LINGER OVER THE REGION LONGER. THE GFS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO
SHIFT EASTWARD SOONER WITH MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME
FRAME AND WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
IF THE COOLER SOLUTIONS VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN NW OHIO. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP BETWEEN 12-13Z THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 6SM OR BETTER BY 14Z. A STRAY
SPRINKLE/SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ERI THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CEILINGS RANGE FROM BELOW 500 IN FOG TO
VFR...GENERALLY LIFTING TO MVFR BY 14Z AND SCATTERING OUT BETWEEN
17-21Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







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