Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 061149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT WILL START TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTER GREAT LAKES WILL SOUTHEAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL THEN MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS GOTTEN DENSE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. SOME LIGHTNING WAS
REPORTED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
BUT THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE
OHIO AND NW PA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED WORDING THAT AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A HALF INCH OF PRECIP THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT...PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EAST END OF THE AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
OVER FAR NW OHIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THERE. WINDS WILL
START OFF LIGHT EASTERLY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE NORTH TO
GET WARMER THAN TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BUT BY THEN MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GOTTEN CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. LOW 80S ARE AGAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT APPEARS THAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. CANNOT SAY THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A FEW POP UP STORMS
AS THIS HAPPENS BUT CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HOLD THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT
KERI AND KBKL. COULD START TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY IN FAR NW OHIO. TOUGH TO TELL IF THESE WILL REACH THE
KTOL AREA BEFORE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT WILL SEE INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO SATURDAY. IT
LOOKS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT BUT STILL SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIP BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
THURSDAY BUT SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WHICH STOP
THE WARMING TREND. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE FORCING OR DYNAMICS WILL
BE THAT GREAT OVER THE WEEKEND SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TIME FRAME PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PEAK AS THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT TO JUST KEEP POPS
AT CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SEEMS LIKELY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS NEAR ERI WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY 13Z. DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM YNG/ERI WHERE HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. THE FOG IS SHALLOW AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
SHOW CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 14Z. A LITTLE HARDER TO TELL
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE CEILINGS TO LIFT...BUT EXPECTING
INLAND SITES TO IMPROVE FASTER. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
FOR TOL TO SCATTER OUT WITH A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE. ALL SITES SHOULD REACH VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER THAN EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING SO
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AGAIN.

.OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING BR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NON
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PEAK THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKE INTO THIS WEEKEND WHEN A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY PUSHES BACK SOUTH DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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