Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND SKY GRIDS.

ORIGINAL...WEAK WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST INTO PA AND NY. SOME OF THIS IS
SET TO MOVE INTO NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE THINNING AND MOVING EAST LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. ON BALANCE AM EXPECTING PLENTY OF SS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALTHOUGH COOLEST SHOULD BE NERN OHIO AND NWRN
PA WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STILL THINKING THE MORNING
THURSDAY WILL BE DECENT FOR MOST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY
THE WEST THIRD WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. CAPES ALSO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THUNDER POTENTIAL. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST REACHING INTO THE AREA AROUND 00Z
FRIDAY. CAPES AGAIN SURGE TOWARD 1000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONT DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WX ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850MB WINDS
EXPECTED AT 60-70-KTS AND 925MB WINDS 40-50KTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH QPF AS WPC PRECIP ACCUMS ABOVE AN INCH. COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING PRECIP TO AGAIN BREAK OUT WITH LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS 850MB TEMPS TURN
NEGATIVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. NAM SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL TO HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST ON A LINE FROM MFD TO
CAK TO YNG. GFS SHOWS SNOW BUT NOT NEARLY THAT MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH.
TEMPS QUITE MILD THURSDAY WITH MID 60S TO EVEN POSSIBLY 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. 50S FRIDAY AND 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS
SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY
BUT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER TO BUILD THE
RIDGE IN OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO...ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IN
THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MICHIGAN WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO
4-8K FEET ACROSS NE OH/NW PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM AND MAY REACH
ERI...BUT SHOULD BE BOTH BRIEF AND LIGHT AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE
CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST GIVING WAY TO JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE ICE FIELDS AND SOME MOVEMENT
OF THE ICE IS POSSIBLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKS
NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE IN ITS WAKE
EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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