Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031941
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ARRIVE
IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. COUNTING ON THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WEAKENING AFTER
DARK...ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRIER AND STABLE AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET
WILL INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A FEW OF THE
COOLER SPOTS COULD DECOUPLE AND SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND THE CHALLENGE IS TO
PIN DOWN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN PUSH. ASIDE FROM SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A POP UP MORNING SHOWER IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ONE
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON...ESPECIALLY AS A NICE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY. QUITE A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY LIKELY TO OUR WEST AND THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. WE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME
MODERATE CAPE AND THE DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. THE SHEAR IS NOT PROGGED TO BE VERY HIGH AND WE WILL
ALSO START OUT RATHER DRY AND STABLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WELL IN THE 70S/AROUND 80.

MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE
BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDIER DAY. NOT
SURE HOW MANY SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE EASTWARD...ALMOST LIKE A WAVE ON THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
SHOWERS "LIKELY" AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. WILL FORECAST SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE.

I SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD THOUGH AND THIS WILL
USUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS RAGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN
IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...THE PATTERN DOESNT LOOK PARTICULARLY VOLATILE
SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  SATURDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO.
DEEP SWLY FLOW OFF THE GLFMX WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL EITHER MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW AND STALL OR REMAIN JUST TO OUR NNW. FOR
NOW GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S SOUTH AND OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. USED WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR GRAPHICS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CU COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OBS COMING IN BROKEN AT
KCLE KCAK KMFD AND KYNG BUT DOMINANT SKY SHOULD BE SCATTERED SO
WILL NOT PUT IN TAF. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOST PLACES
12 KNOTS OR LESS HOWEVER NWRN OHIO WILL SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
AS GRADIENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF WNW AT KERI WITH
LAKE BREEZE. LAKE BREEZE IS CLOSE TO KCLE AND IS VISIBLE ON TLVE
RADAR. ONLY QUESTION IS WILL IT GET TO THE TERMINAL. BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOOSING SOUTH MOMENTUM BUT SINCE ITS CLOSE WILL GO
AHEAD AND BRING IT IN FOR AN HOURS OR TWO BEGINNING AT 19Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN STATES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING STATIONARY
EAST/WEST ACROSS NRN OR CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL TURN EAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH
MID WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT TURNING WINDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH FRIDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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