Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AT THIS TIME. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S EAST OF THE
CLOUD COVER. BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE
SHOWERS HAVE ARRIVED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR GETS AS
FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEAKENING OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND TO THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. LOWERED
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER HAS A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
A FEW OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STILL REACH THE MID 70S.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO CONVECTION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE AT THAT TIME. BY THURSDAY WE
RETURN TO HAVING A DRY FORECAST AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WE WILL NEED TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. SINCE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE RATHER
HIGH IT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY OF THE THUNDER. BY SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. A LAKE BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO IGNITE A FEW STORMS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFFECTING KTOL AND
SOON TO BE AFFECTING KFDY. ISOLATED MVFR WITHIN THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING KCLE-
KMFD 20-2030Z. EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING
AS CAPES ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CAPES. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AFTER
THE LINE WE SHOULD GET A BREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE AND THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. NON VFR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LARGER WAVES
OF 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...MAYBE UP TO 15
KNOTS...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN





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