Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201158
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
758 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE ERIE LAKESHORE
EAST OF CLEVELAND AS WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN.  STILL GETTING GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  RAN
ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS LIFTING NE OF
THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT INTO SWRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO NEAR CHARLESTON WV.  HEIGHT FALLS PRETTY MUCH DUE NORTH
WHICH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS WHICH TRACK THE LOW NORTH
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.   TEMP FORECAST A LITTLE
TRICKY DEPENDING UPON TIMING OF THE FRONT.   WENT UPPER 60S IN THE
EAST BUT LOWER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF WE GET A FEW SUN
BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD
FRONT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  FALL LIKE
PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WITH DEEP TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NERN
STATES TUESDAY...AND A LOW UPPER LOW MOVING MOVING OVER THE UPPER
LAKES.  SERIES OF WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO JUST LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING.  MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK.  BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THE GFS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO -6C OVER LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STILL NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME NUISANCE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF THE DAY LINGERING OVER THE SNOW BELT AREAS
AS WE WILL HAVE A FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE DRY. THE GFS
MODEL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MOVES A STRONG LOW THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND IF THAT OCCURRED MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD GET SOME RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS OVERDONE...THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ECMWF AGREE...SO KEPT IT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BE FROM CLEVELAND EAST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TOL
AND FDY BY 1530Z...CLE AROUND 1730Z AND ERIE BY 1930Z. IN THE
MEANTIME THE FORECAST FOR THE CEILINGS ARE TOUGH. NOT EXPECTING
IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEY COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
AFTER THE FRONT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN VFR THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY
ON THE EAST END.

THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND
THEN INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR THE
ERIE PA LAKESHORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ARE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WILL NOT
END THE SMALL CRAFT AND THEN START IT UP AGAIN IN A FEW HOURS...JUST
KEPT IT GOING. STILL SOME CONCERN ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END THAT
THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALES TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE MORE IN THE CANADIAN WATERS IF IT DID OCCUR.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT
TIMES...THE EAST END WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THAT SHOULD HELP DECREASE THE WINDS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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