Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050831
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDER THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MANY SHOWERS CAN RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL HAVE EARLY HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING.
ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND THE WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE REGION WILL
REQUIRE THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NW PA. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
SQUASH THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH BY FRIDAY THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES COULD INITIATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY MAY ALLOW SOME THUNDER TO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO
AS WELL. THIS WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY IF IT CAN OCCUR. HAVE PLACED
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WARMER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 80 TO
85. COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE LAKE BREEZES MAY
DEVELOP AND HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CURL
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...PLACING THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE REGION AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS THE NEXT FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE
00Z/05 GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
GEM/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND DO NOT SHOW THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING IN FROM THE WEST UNTIL SUNDAY.
POPS WILL NEED ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE APPROACHES IN A FAVORED
SOLUTION AND TIMING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 80
DEGREE MARK OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES. COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH FOG STARTING TO
DEVELOP WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN
TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AND EXPECT TO SEE IFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOP AT FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG. LESS CERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE DENSE
FOG WILL BE BUT IT COULD EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN SITES.
CLE/YNG/ERI COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE SAGS SOUTH BRINGING
DRIER AIR.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OHIO WESTWARD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND TRIED TO TIME THE SHOWERS INTO THE NW
OHIO SITES TOWARDS 12Z. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE NORTH BUT ANY SITE COULD SEE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW MVFR OR
IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT TOL THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COOL FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE.

.OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING BR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NON
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET JUST EAST OF THE
ISLANDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK SOUTH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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