Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021705
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1259 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND EXTEND A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND KEEP A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL
BROAD RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION AS WELL TODAY. A
WEAK AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND
AREAS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING WITH IT LIMITED MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY AND IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRACTICALLY STALL. THIS FEATURE COULD BE THE
DECIDING FACTOR ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
LUCAS COUNTY DUE TO THE COLD DOME BEING PUSHED INLAND FROM THE WEST
END OF THE LAKE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THE MOISTURE
SOURCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER NORTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER WITH DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY WE CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE AREA MAY BE CLIPPED BY
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THE LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS SUPPORTING SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-8K FT MAINLY FROM CLE/MFD EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THE TROUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING MUCH
IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING.
THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TURNING WINDS AT CLE/ERI TO
THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL COME DOWN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO EXCEED 12 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL SOUTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








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