Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190825
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
425 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. A SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
WITH MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING NORTH UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO THE
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL REACH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHOWERS HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES...WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON AND NOT
REACHING NORTHEAST OHIO UNTIL EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z DTX AND
PBZ SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA SNEAKS INTO NE OHIO. A FEW OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BUT EXPECT THESE TO BE
BOTH LIGHT AND BRIEF AND IF THEY REACH THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ARRIVES LATER TODAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER QUEBEC AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NOSING UP THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TODAY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO
MANSFIELD. WIND GUSTS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. GIVEN THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO SANDUSKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND
FIELD...DOWNSLOPING WINDS BECOME STRONG TOWARDS ERIE PA WITH GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE PRECIPITATION MAY ACT TO
HAVE A DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE WINDS SO DID NOT ISSUE AND ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-EVALUATE
AND ISSUE IF NEEDED GIVEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT ARRIVES. A FEW SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP IN THE DRY SLOT SO
WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW POP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS BOTH
A SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THESE FEATURES ADVANCE FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED AND WILL DEPEND ON THICKNESS OF CLOUDS AND TIMING
OF SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE ON
MONDAY AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PULLED THE MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. IF EASTERN AREAS END UP
DESTABILIZING A LITTLE MORE THAN CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD INCREASE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE
OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH LOW 50S
EXPECTED INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED.

SOME TROFINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL CAUSE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE SNOW BELT
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 10C. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION IN THE TIMING WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER.
KEPT SATURDAY DRY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AND IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY. SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE LATE THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE
LAKESHORE BY EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON OVER NE OH AND NW PA.

THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDER SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL AFTER DARK AND KEPT
IT MAINLY WEST OF CLE WITH VCTS.

.OUTLOOK..IFR/MVFR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN
PERIODS OF NON VFR MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A WINDY PERIOD WILL BE STARTING ON LAKE ERIE TODAY.

EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND GUSTY AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH THRU INDIANA AND MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE STARTING AT NOON AS
THE WAVES WILL INCREASE IN THAT AREA TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE THAT THE WINDS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE WITH THE STRONG WARM
AIR ALOFT. FOR TONIGHT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MAINLY FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING A LITTLE LONGER ON THE EAST END OF THE
LAKE...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER IN
THAT AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED...HOWEVER...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AND WINDS COULD EVEN BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE EAST END OF THE
LAKE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142>145.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ146-147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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