Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241616
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
COOL AIR LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PULLING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS WILL BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S...WHILE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. WINDS REMAIN LESS
BLUSTERY THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE A WARMER FEELING TO THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP FROM MISSOURI ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE RAIN CHANCES
DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN IT IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BROUGHT BKN/OVC IN. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...PIVOTS SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE OF COURSE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT
SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET WET AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN
DRY. BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR LIKELY POPS ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A MIX BRINGING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.
PRECIP MOVES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BEING PULLED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NOSING IN. SUNDAY
NIGHT A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. MOISTURE BEST EAST SO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS NWRN PA. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT STAY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN STATES. NOT QUITE SURE TO BUY OFF
ON THIS AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO MAY CARRY AT LEAST
SMALL CHC POPS IN THE NE ON TUE AND WED NIGHT AND THU AS NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

WITH NO SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO WELL INTO MAY AS POLAR VORTEX
STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS SE INTO THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT PATCHY CIRRUS THEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST 00Z TO 06Z
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR
NEAR TOL OR FDY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
IN SHRA THEN IMPROVE SUN. LOCAL NON VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM DOWN TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. A LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF
THE LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE AN NE FLOW TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE SAT...POSSIBLY INTO MON
UNTIL THE HIGH START TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE FOR MON NIGHT. A LIGHT N
TO NE FLOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS





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