Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST IS TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS ON THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MOVING NORTHEAST. TRIED TO TIME THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND THE SPREAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAD TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWER ANYWHERE...40-50
POP... AS THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER POP UP ALMOST AT ANY
TIME. HIGHER POPS...60-80 PERCENT... MAINLY EAST OF I-71.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOWER.MID 60S WHERE
THERE ARE FEWER SHOWERS BU MAY HOLD IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GET VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND THINK THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THAN TODAY.
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW
PA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE DRY ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR 48 HOURS OR
SO. WILL TRY FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP SLIGHTLY BUT
SUSPECT THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED CATEGORICAL OR HIGHER
WORDING. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA REACHING 70 ON SATURDAY. READINGS WILL DIP BACK TO NORMAL
ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...EXITING TO THE EAST WITH TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT BUT DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE EAST WHICH SHOULD START OUT THE DAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT IS PULLED OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BACKED OFF ON POPS ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY KEPT A
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN SO NUDGED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60. THE COOLER AIR PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THE
MOST PART ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS TIME. STILL A POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN GO IFR AFTER DARK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CLEARING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE ARE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
TO START THE DAY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH TODAY SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WESTERN BASIN MAY
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF A CHOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT
WAVES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DEVELOP OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON MONDAY
WITH A WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC






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