Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011646
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1246 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...MOVING TO THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA BUT WITH DEW POINTS SO
LOW AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN I DOUBT THERE IS MUCH RISK OF NEW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST AREAS TO AROUND 70
NORTHWEST OH. COOLER NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH A NORTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AND
PROBABLY SOME CUMULUS BUT WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND SO MUCH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS THERE SEEMS LITTLE RISK OF
ANY SHOWERS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
THE FLOW AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE A RISK OF SHOWERS SLIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. SOME OF THE MODELS POST A SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW AND THE SATURATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN RATHER LARGE. RARELY DO WE SEE ANY
SHOWERS WITH THESE CONDITIONS...IF ANYTHING OCCURS I WOULD THINK
IT WOULD BE FARTHER NORTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY TOUCH 80
IN A FEW SPOTS...AT LEAST MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS UP THE
EAST LAKESHORE TOWARD ASHTABULA AND ERIE WHERE THE WIND MAY COME
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER MONDAY. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE FRONT GETTING CLOSE OR REACHING THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO THE MIDDLE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BE IN
OUR FAVOR IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AS A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEAN RELATIVE MOISTURE WEAKENS BY
THURSDAY BUT DUE TO INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...CANT RULE OUT A
POSSIBLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
SHOULD BE AT 340 AT 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...PATCHES OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY ON THE LAKE AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY THING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS DO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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